Improving Policymaking by Scenario Testing Statewide Zoning Reforms

New technologies now enable novel and expansive application of a tried-and-true analytical approach — real estate pencil-outs — to provide data-driven insights about potential influences of statewide zoning bills on parcels throughout a state. This is informing policy formulation in California, Colorado, and other states that have considered statewide transit-oriented development, missing middle housing, and commercial corridor zoning reforms.

YIMBY advocates and others have pushed legislatures to consider statewide zoning reforms that could preempt local zoning control and allow more housing development. Proponents see these policies as necessary interventions during a housing crisis to allow more equitable, environmentally just, and economically efficient land uses. Opponents highlight how undesirable neighborhood change, including displacement and gentrification in underrepresented communities, could be exacerbated by statewide policies. Both arguments have merit and scenario testing various policy formulations across statewide parcel databases has helped policymakers understand potential implications of their bills. Learn how bill sponsors, advocacy coalitions, and legislators relied on these innovative analyses to refine statewide zoning bills (e.g. California’s SB9, SB6/AB2011, AB2097, and SB827/SB50; Oregon’s HB2001 and SB10; Washington’s HB1923; Colorado’s SB23-213, HB24-1152, HB24-1304, and HB24-1313) in ways that could mitigate displacement risks, optimize housing affordability, and achieve other objectives.

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