Planning for Prosperity When You're City Is Shrinking

Scientific American reports that about half of United States cities — almost 15,000 — are projected to lose population by 2100. Although the census still projects national growth at a diminishing rate until the 2060s, demographers anticipate a declining national population after that.

Today, people from many shrinking places relocate elsewhere for better job prospects, either within the same metro or to other regions, thereby continuing disparities. A key variable is future acceptance and accommodation of immigration, which varies politically by region.

The growth-management planning many of us learned and practice may become less relevant. Despair is not a necessary outcome of a declining economy. Cities can have relatively flat or modestly declining populations and still prosper by increasing economic productivity per capita; reducing inefficient costs; repurposing land; and, perhaps, modifying expectations of what constitutes value. In many regions, planning does not focus on these transitions. It assumes, strives for, and regulates the impacts of growth. Some cities have spent decades planning for prosperity while losing residents. What lessons have they learned? Is prosperity in the face of declining population possible or equitable? What planning systems and planner skills are required? Prepare!